SAN JOSE -- The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group here today slashed its forecast for the chip production tool shipments in 2001, saying that the business will decline by 27% from revenues last year.
Citing the downturn in the semiconductor and equipment markets, SEMI said worldwide chip equipment revenues will drop from $47.7 billion in 2000 to $35 billion in 2001. SEMI is also now projecting that sales of semiconductor materials will decrease 6% in 2001 from revenues last year.
Not long ago, SEMI and the chip-equipment industry were still upbeat about the market. Back in December, SEMI originally predicted that the worldwide chip-making equipment industry would grow by some 22.3% to $57.2 billion in 2001 (see Dec. 6 story ).
Today, SEMI also issued a forecast for 2002 and 2003. The worldwide chip-equipment industry will grow by a mere 3% in 2002, but will increase by 22% in 2003, according the San Jose-based trade group.
In 2001, however, it's a bleak year. In what is arguably the worst semiconductor downturn ever, North American-based suppliers of chip production systems posted a record low book-to-bill of 0.42 in April, according to SEMI (see May 22 story ).
In the first quarter of this year, SEMI reported that worldwide chip-equipment shipments were $11.2 billion, an increase of 10.9% in the like period a year ago but 12.7% below the figure for the fourth quarter of 2000.
In a regional breakout of Q1 revenues, SEMI said Japan's semiconductor equipment purchases surged 31.7% to $3.37 billion from $2.56 billion in the fourth quarter of 2000. The strong growth and weakness in other regions made Japan the world's largest geographical market for chip production systems in Q1--topping North America, which came in at $2.97 billion after falling 23.7% from $3.90 billion in Q4 last year. Taiwan fell to fifth place in the world's regional markets (see story).
SEMI also reported worldwide equipment orders were $6.50 billion in the first quarter of 2001. The figure represents a 50% drop from the same quarter a year ago and 53% below the orders figure for the fourth period of 2000.
"There was a rapid drop in the market for new semiconductor equipment in the first quarter as worldwide orders declined 53% from the fourth quarter of 2001," said analyst Elizabeth Schumann, who tracks the market for SEMI.
"While the rapidity of this downturn has been severe, we do expect a recovery in orders late in the second half to contribute to a more stable 2002 with flat or single digit growth across the industry," she said.
