TAIPEI, Taiwan -- The big losers in chip revenues this year will be the Americas and Asia Pacific markets as well as memories, bipolar digital ICs, and "micro" product segments, according to the new World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecast issued this week.
Overall, the revised 2001 WSTS forecast shows chip revenues dropping 13.5% to $176.8 billion in 2001 from $204.4 billion in 2000. The WSTS industry organization drastically cut its outlook for 2001 during the group's annual spring forecasting session in Taiwan this month (see May 29 story).
Chip sales will not recover their losses in the recovery of 2002, coming in at $201.4 billion with a 13.9% increase from revenues this year, according to the new WSTS forecast.
Semconductor revenues in the Americas will fall the most of the WSTS's four major regions. The new forecast shows chip sales dropping 21.4% to $50.4 billion in the Western Hemisphere compared to $64.1 billion in 2000. The Asia Pacific region's chip sales will drop 15.6% to $43.3 billion from $51.3 billion last year.
Japan will nudge into second place, just barely passing up the Asian Pacific region by $100 million in semiconductor sales, according to the new WSTS forecast (see regional table below).
In the product-segment breakout, the revised forecast shows memory revenues dropping 20.9% this year to $38.9 billion from $49.2 billion. The micro segment--MPUs, microcontrollers, digital signal processors and microperipherals--will slip 14.3% to $52.7 billion in 2001 vs. $61.5 billion in 2000. The recession will shove bipolar digital chip sales below $1 billion mark this year with a 44.3% drop, accelerating the demise of that technology segment in the long term (see segment table below).
The WSTS trade organization said the downturn period will end in the middle of 2001 with all major markets and product segments resuming sequential growth in the third quarter.
"Microcomponents together with memories will lead the upturn and other products will follow closely," said the trade group is releasing its revised forecast on Monday. "Despite the significant recovery in the second half of 201, the year-to-year growth over 2000 will be negative 13.5%."
How downturn will impact regions
| Markets |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
| Americas |
$64.1 billion |
$50.4 billion
(-21.4%) |
$57.3 billion
(+13.8%) |
| Asia Pacific |
$51.3 billion |
$43.3 billion
(-15.6%) |
$50.1 billion
(+15.8%) |
| Japan |
$46.7 billion |
$43.4 billion
(-7.2%) |
$48.7 billion
(+12.3%) |
| Europe |
$42.3 billion |
$39.8 billion
(-5.9%) |
$45.3 billion
(+13.8%) |
| Total |
$204.4 billion |
$176.8 billion
(-13.5%) |
$201.4 billion
(+13.9%) |
| Source: WSTS revised forecast (May 2001) |
Outlook for semiconductor product segments
| Chip segment |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
| Discretes |
$16.9 billion |
$15.3 billion
(-9.8%) |
$16.8 billion
(+9.8%) |
| Opto |
$9.8 billion |
$9.7 billion
(-1.1%) |
$10.8 billion
(+11.1%) |
| Sensors |
$700 million |
$1.0 billion
(+37.6%) |
$1.2 billion
(+22.6%) |
| ICs |
$176.9 billion |
$150.8 billion
(-14.7%) |
$172.7 billion
(+14.5%) |
| Bipolar digital |
$1.1 billion |
$600 million
(-44.3%) |
$500 million
(-19.9%) |
| Analog |
$30.5 billion |
$27.7 billion
(-9.3%) |
$31.4 billion
(+13.3%) |
| Micro |
$61.5 billion |
$52.7 billion
(-14.3%) |
$59.3 billion
(+12.5%) |
| MOS logic |
$34.6 billion |
$30.9 billion
(-10.6%) |
$34.7 billion
(+12.3%) |
| Memory |
$49.2 billion |
$38.9 billion
(-20.9%) |
$46.8 billion
(+20.2%) |
| Total |
$204.4 billion |
$176.8 billion
(-13.5%) |
$201.4 billion
(+13.9%) |
| Source: WSTS forecast (May 2001) |
