GRAZ, Austria -- Assuming a moderate semiconductor recovery begins in the fourth quarter this year, worldwide chip revenues will increase by just 2.6% in 2002 after dropping 32.1% in 2001, according to a new industry consensus forecast released this week by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.
The new autumn WSTS forecast shows the struggling chip industry growing next year only because revenues are expected to increase in the Asia Pacific region by 12.4%, while all other regions will be flat to slightly lower than this year (see table below).
The new WSTS forecast was drafted during a meeting in Noordwijk, the Netherlands, two weeks ago, and it significantly lowers the organization's projections from its mid-year outlook, issued last spring. Instead of predicting a 13.5% drop in industry revenues to $176.8 billion in 2001, the new WSTS autumn forecast shows chip sales plunging 32.1% to $138.8 billion this year.
The new forecast assumes a moderate upturn in the chip markets will begin in the last three months of this year, followed by a gradual acceleration of growth in 2002, said WSTS, which represents about 66 major semiconductor companies worldwide. The previous WSTS forecast had assumed the current semiconductor downturn would hit its low point in the second quarter this year, but the slump was more dramatic than expected, according to WSTS.
The new forecast shows WSTS representatives now expecting 2.6% growth to $142.4 billion, followed by an 18.5% increase in 2003 and a 15.1% rise in chip sales in 2004. If that forecast holds up, chip revenues will still fall short of last year's $204.4 billion. The WSTS forecast would give the semiconductor industry total revenues of $194.2 billion in 2004.
The WSTS forecast is used as the basis for other forecasts by other industry organizations. The U.S.-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) in San Jose, for example, will issue its fall forecast on Nov. 7, using the WSTS consensus forecast. Representatives from over 30 chip companies were involved in setting the new WSTS forecast this year, said a spokeswoman for the organization.
According to the WSTS group, the next upturn will be lead by analog semiconductors and "micro components"--which are microprocessors, microperipherals, digital signal processors (DSPs) and microcontrollers.
Some market research firms agree with the new WSTS forecast, also predicting minuscule growth next year. This week, for example, IC Insights Inc. of Scottsdale, Ariz., issued its updated forecast, which shows semiconductor revenues growing 1% in 2002 to about $138 billion (see Oct. 23 story).
Regional Breakout of Chip Outlook
| Region |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
| Americas |
$64.07 billion
(+34.9%) |
$35.96 billion
(-43.9%) |
$35.84 billion
(-0.3%) |
| Europe |
$42.31 billion
(+32.7%) |
$29.39 billion
(-30.5%) |
$28.46 billion
(-3.2%) |
| Japan |
$46.75 billion
(+42.4%) |
$34.21 billion
(-26.8%) |
$33.95 billion
(-0.8%) |
| Asia Pacific |
$51.26 billion
(+37.9%) |
$39.27 billion
(-23.4%) |
$44.13 billion
(+12.4%) |
| World Total |
$204.39 billion
(+36.8%) |
$138.82 billion
(-32.1%) |
$142.38 billion
(+2.6%) |
Source: WSTS Autumn 2001 Forecast
*(Percentage in parenthesis shows change from previous year) |
