TOKYO -- Worldwide semiconductor equipment sales are expected to decline by 3% in 2002 from this year, but the chip-making tool market will rebound and increase by 29% in 2003 and 23% in 2004, said a new industry consensus forecast released today by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group.
The new forecast--released by SEMI during the opening of its Semicon Japan trade show here--said the chip equipment market will fall 38% to $29.6 billion in 2001 from a record high $47.7 billion in 2000 (see table below). The 2001 decline is largest annual drop in semiconductor capital spending ever recorded, said SEMI, which is based in San Jose.
"Following its best-ever year in 2000, the semiconductor equipment industry will suffer its steepest annual decline in 2001, due to the weakened global economy, reduced end-user demand, oversupply of semiconductor devices and excess manufacturing capacity," said Stanley T. Myers, president and CEO of SEMI.
"While expectations are for the market to remain flat, to slightly down in 2002, the majority of industry participants believe that this quarter marks the cyclic trough for equipment orders," he said.
Total equipment sales are expected to reach $28.7 billion in2002, a 3% drop over 2001, according to SEMI. In 2002, the chip-equipment market in North America is expected to be $8.5 billion, a 2% increase over the $8.3 billion figure posted in 2001, SEMI said.
Japan follows with expected sales of $7.1 billion in 2002, a 13% decline over the $8.2 billion figure posted in 2001, SEMI said. Europe should post $3.87 billion in sales in 2002, nearly 4%
below the $4 billion expected this year, they said.
The rest of the world region, including China and other Asia-Pacific countries, is expected to see 6% growth in 2002 to $3.5 billion, they added.
Going forward, the chip-equipment market will rebound. The business will grow by 29% to $37 billion in 2003, and jump 23% growth to nearly $46 billion in 2004, according to SEMI.
The SEMI Consensus Forecast includes input from 60 of the trade association's member companies in the United States, Europe and Japan. Data was collected from surveys issued between October and November 2001.
Regional scorecard for capital spending
| Region |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
| N. America |
$12.93 billion |
$8.34 billion
(-35.4%) |
$8.50 billion
(+1.9%) |
$10.98 billion
(+29.1%) |
$13.22 billion
(+20.4%) |
| Japan |
$9.18 billion |
$8.15 billion
(-11.3%) |
$7.07 billion
(-13.2%) |
$8.56 billion
(+21.0%) |
$10.10 billion
(+18.0%) |
| Taiwan |
$9.32 billion |
$3.47 billion
(-62.8%) |
$3.49 billion
(+0.8%) |
$4.86 billion
(+39.1%) |
$6.52 billion
(+34.2%) |
| Europe |
$6.44 billion |
$4.02 billion
(-37.6%) |
$3.87 billion
(-3.7%) |
$4.69 billion
(+21.0%) |
$5.35 billion
(+14.1%) |
| Korea |
$3.87 billion |
$2.27 billion
(-41.4%) |
$2.21 billion
(-2.5%) |
$2.90 billion
(+30.9%) |
$3.71 billion
(+28.0%) |
| ROW* |
$5.94 billion |
$3.31 billion
(-44.2%) |
$3.52 billion
(+6.2%) |
$5.04 billion
(+43.2%) |
$6.60 billion
(+31.0%) |
| World total |
$47.68 billion |
$29.57 billion
(-38.0%) |
$28.67 billion
(-3.0%) |
$37.02 billion
(+29.1%) |
$45.50 billion
(+22.9%) |
SEMI Consensus Forecast December 2001
*Rest of World includes China, Singapore and Malaysia |
