PHOENIX -- Usually strong sequential growth in chip sales during the first quarter of 2002 is providing new evidence that this year's recovery in chip sales could be a much stronger than most other industry forecasts are predicting, said Semico Research Corp.
The Phoenix-based market research firm reiterated what many considered a "contrarian" forecast last fall when Semico predicted that chip sales would bounce back from the severe 2001 recession with nearly 20% growth in 2002 (see Dec. 12 story).
After new data on March sales and the first quarter were released by the Semiconductor Industry Association on Thursday, showing the strongest sequential growth since 1986. Worldwide chip sales grew 7.2% to $10.75 billion in March from $10.03 billion in February, said the SIA (see May 2 story).
Semico Research said its forecast remains at 17% growth in chip sales this year. Other forecasts have set growth in the single-digit percentage increase range, but they are likely to be revised upwards based on what appears to be growing momentum in some chip markets.
The first quarter of a calendar year is typically weak compared to the final three months of the prior year, noted Semico. But, this week's SIA data showed Q1 of 2002 sales increased 5.6% from the fourth quarter, said the research firm. Semico said since 1989 only one other year exceeded 5.6% growth and that was in 1995, when the first quarter was up 8.8% from Q4 of 1994.
"How did growth end up for 1995? It turned out to be one of the strongest years on record for the semiconductor industry with 41% growth. So 2002 may yet play out, according to Semico's forecast," said the research firm.
