MUNICH — Western Europe will rebound in 2003 from the devastating electronics recession but at a slower rate than other regions in the world, a market analyst said Tuesday (Nov. 12).
Mark Kirstein, vice president and general manager of In-Stat/MDR, told an audience at the Electronica 2002 trade show here that the continent is suffering from the effects of a manufacturing shift to Asia.
The regional semiconductor market is expected to tumble 9.7 percent this year but rebound in the next two years at rates of 14 and 28.1 percent, Kirstein forecast.
Even with the uncertainty surrounding the effects of the manufacturing migration, the region is in fairly strong shape, Kirstein said.
"Bear in mind that although migration in electronics manufacturing is impacting high-volume products, Europe will still be an important production base for lower-volume products produced by small and medium-sized companies," he said.
Sixteen Western European countries account for 22 percent of the world electronics market. Eastern Europe, by contrast, comprises just 2 percent of the total market with Hungary accounting for half that region's output.
The worldwide semiconductor market is already on the upswing, Kirstein said. Unit growth is expected to rebound this year some 17-18 percent and monthly revenue totals are on the rise. The worldwide revenues should climb back to $225 billion by 2005, he added. By 2006, however, the industry will head back into another recession.
"We used to have three-year cycles but that may be moving to a two or two-and-a-half-year cycle," Kirstein said.
Kirstein's presentation can be found online.
