SAN JOSE, Calif. — Global semiconductor sales were $12.2 billion in January of 2003, a 2.4 percent decrease from $12.5 billion in December of 2002, but a 22 percent increase from $10 billion in the like period a year ago, according to new figures from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) here today (March 3, 2003).
Sales in all geographic markets were also down two to three percent in January over December, but were up over January 2002, according to the San Jose-based trade organization. And reflecting seasonal demand patterns, eight out of twelve product sectors in the semiconductor sector were down modestly in January from December levels, according to the SIA.
The results were disappointing, given the recent sequential growth over the last several months. The SIA's Global Sales Report (GSR) is a three-month moving average of sales activity. The GSR is tabulated by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization, which represents approximately 66 companies.
The SIA blamed the results on seasonal patterns. "For more than a decade now, with the exception of the boom year 2000, sales have been slightly lower in January than December because of the seasonality of the semiconductor industry," said George Scalise, president of SIA, in a statement.
"We continue to forecast double digit revenue growth for 2003 and broad-based strength in our industry, driven by a recovery in information technology spending, a fast-paced global wireless market, and the emergence of new growth sectors, including Wi-Fi (802.11) and broadband networks using advanced semiconductor technologies," he said.
Last month, the SIA re-iterated its IC forecast at 19.8 percent in 2003 over 2002 (see Feb. 3 story ). Some believe the forecast is too bullish, however (see Feb. 3 story ).
Today, the SIA said that IT spending will jump four to seven percent in 2003, with a 10 to 14 percent rise in PC sales, as corporate buyers return to the market. There is an installed base of 160-180 million older units worldwide that need to be replaced in the anticipated upgrade cycle, according to the SIA.
For January of 2003, meanwhile, most IC product sectors were down. One of the exceptions was digital signal processors (DSPs), which were up 3.3 percent in the month, according to the SIA.
The geographic markets were also down except for Asia-Pacific, which rose 33 percent from a year ago and now constitutes 36 percent of the total global chip market. "The U.S. and China are the only briskly growing economies in the world," Scalise said, "and China is fueling annual 8 percent growth with exports, running an historic $103 billion trade surplus with the U.S. last year."
China's semiconductor market is growing 18 to 20 percent per year, pushing it past $17 billion in 2002, from $12 billion in 2000, as the nation seeks to satisfy an increasing portion of its semiconductor demand internally and become a net exporter by the end of the decade.
